所属单位:国际工商管理学院
主题:The Nexus of Persistent Trade Surplus and High GDP Growth: Theory and Evidence
报告人:郭美新 清华大学经济与管理学院 助理教授
时间:2016-12-15 14:00 至 15:30
地点:国际工商管理学院108
Abstract
Net export has an effect on money supply and credit in the domestic credit market and, as a result, could indirectly affect output in the private sectors. In this paper we provide a model to capture this indirect effect of net export on output and show that persistent trade surplus has a positive effect on domestic output. However, a crucial condition for such a mechanism to work is that the nominal interest rate has to be positive; when the nominal interest is near zero, trade surplus will no longer have any effect on output. We test this theory with Japanese quarterly data for the period 1970 to 2014 and find supporting evidence for our theory for the two distinctive pre- and post-1995 periods.